Anyone that has read “The Creature From Jekyll Island” already knows that the Fed is NOT part of government. Contrary to popular belief, propagated by a captured media and Congress, the Fed is nothing more than a banking cartel, initiated to protect and enrich the big, money-center banks. Their success has come directly on the backs of taxpayers and citizens (and govt’s) of the world that are forced to hold dollars, whether for currency transactions or for parking reserves.
In a Wall Street Journal article yesterday, a former Fed employee comes clean on the true intent behind TARP (bank bailout) and the QE programs initiated by the Fed to supposedly rescue the economy. Karl Denninger makes some well-informed comments on the piece, but fails to mention one thing.
Timing exactly when it (the market collapse) will come is a fool’s game but denying the inevitability of that outcome and remaining exposed to it is suicidal. The worse news is that when the corrective move comes the entirety of the ramp will come back off with interest and this time there is nothing left with which to counteract the effects.
There is in fact something to counteract the effects. It’s called bail-in’s of pensions, 401K’s, IRA’s, and cash deposits in banks; along with much higher taxes. What? Do you think the Fed or the govt are going to go down without a fight? Yea, I didn’t think so!
The other thing Karl misses is the corrective move lower can come from much higher levels. Fundamentally, financial markets have no business being where they are now, but we don’t have markets anymore, only manipulations. The other often ignored factor is the impact of global capital flows. For example, if the Fed “tapers” (reduces its bond purchases) by $30 billion per month and $40 billion per month flows in from Europe, Japan, and other countries looking for a safer haven, then the net effect will be a $10 billion increase over and above the $85 billion a month being pumped in by the Fed’s QE program.
As pointed out in a Market Update in June, the current upper boundary of the Jaws of Death pattern is 16,500 – 17,000, and it keeps rising the longer it takes for the DOW to reach this boundary. The DOW is currently at 15,750. If the DOW moves quickly higher over the next few months, then the reset Karl warns about would come fairly soon. However, this market collapse would have to follow a collapse in confidence in the Fed and dollar-based assets (primarily bonds). While confidence in everything govt is eroding quickly, the collapse in confidence is likely not going to be in the next few months.
Based on Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model, and the prerequisite collapse in the Euro and Yen that will chase scared capital into the dollar, the reset of markets and our economy will not occur until late 2015 – early 2016. This would give the DOW plenty of time and room to have another healthy pullback before powering well above the 17,000-level to reach the upper boundary of the expanding wedge pattern. This provides ample time for Obama, Congress, and Central Bankers to wreak even greater havoc on our economy and Constitution.