Driven by the rise in interest rates, higher taxes, declining home ownership, and the reduction in long-term mortgages, real estate prices should peak with the Economic Confidence Model on 10/1/15, which Armstrong calls the Big Bang (the collapse in sovereign debt and the peak in govt). Since homeowners are only owners as long as they can afford the taxes, the headwinds will convert more and more into renters until the prices reach equilibrium. The only thing that may surprise investors more is the rise of the dollar.
Greece has been the epicenter for the coming sovereign debt crisis, and London real estate looks to be the canary in the coal mine for real estate. The US could continue to benefit in the short-term, because it’s still the best horse on the plot of land where the glue factory resides. However, on the other side of 2015.75, when the economy turns down and declining tax receipts “force” govt to raise taxes (instead of downsizing and reforming), distressed capital will look for a more liquid safe haven that doesn’t have a deflationary tailwind, especially when the cycle has another 17 years to decline.
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Greece finally does the right thing by kicking out the debt pushers. They also used a democratic process by using a referendum to let the people decide their fate, instead of unelected bureaucrats or pretend Representatives that have been bought off by donors. Yet, all one hears from the financial media and so-called freedom lovers on FOX is how Greece is full of a bunch of lazy tax cheats.
Those critical of Greece either don’t understand the flawed structure of the euro, are hypocritically talking their book, or failed miserably in history class. First of all, countries that had a currency weaker than Germany prior to the creation of the euro, immediately had their debt increased when it was converted to euros. For Greece and the Drachma, it resulted in Greece’s debt doubling due to a currency event as the value of the euro increased.
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Now that Bernie is rising in the polls, an examination of this establishment politician is necessary. For those that think Bernie is somehow different because he is further left than Hitlary, fail to realize that after almost a quarter century in politics, Bernie is just like the rest of the establishment that could not survive in the real world and therefore will do what ever is required to preserve their job, perks, and power.
I will use Bernie’s “10 radical ideas that most Americans agree on“, to summarize the problems he does not solve, including climate change, which will not stop changing even if all carbon-producing machines were turned off tomorrow.
Referencing the above article, I have no problem with items 1, 2, 6, 9, and 10, but Bernie whiffs on the other items. If we don’t fix the economy, the other things won’t matter. In general, Bernie believes that socialist policies provide economic solutions that have never worked – even once. I guess people are just determined to get their turn at bat to prove they too can strike out.
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It’s obvious to most conscious people that Obama thinks govt’s humongous hammer has minor consequences in its hunt for nails and money. What apparently is not so obvious to many are the consequences of Obama’s Marxist actions. The reason I say “not so obvious” is because even those that understand that less freedom means less economic prosperity, don’t seem to understand their rights are being sacrificed daily for the benefit of govt, and at the expense of the economy. The most recent example appears in Obama’s 2016 budget, which targets retirement accounts.
Sub-market returns on you Social Security CONTRIBUTIONS is bad enough, and we are also going to be expected to accept cuts in our Social Security payments. However, now Obama thinks you should be taxed on your retirement savings, which were supposed to be tax-free. Whether it happens through taxation or a govt-induced market collapse, the bottom line is your retirement will get a significant haircut. Why? So those in govt can keep their jobs, perks, and power.
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When capital flees conditions it does not like, it will find a conduit, often with the support of govt and their cronies – at least if the money is flowing in. While broke govt’s will impose liberty-killing laws (capital controls) if people try to take their money out of the country, if money is coming into a country, the govt assists or looks the other way – when money is from Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs).
Just as many citizens do not fully appreciate the NSA data gathering of all of their PERSONAL information (believing they have nothing to hide), they also may not understand the full cost of our govt permitting their bankster donors from laundering money for drug cartels or funneling money from Oligarchs around the world into US real estate.
The consequences of the NSA’s unconstitutional data gathering, sold as fighting terrorism versus the true reason of finding and confiscating money for govt, is that capital will ultimately flee the intrusively-corrupt and selective law enforcement by govt in favor of safer jurisdictions – even if that means going underground or under mattresses.
The consequence of felonious financial flows into the US is that it artificially inflates asset prices, and when combined with the normal flight of capital from troubled regions around the world, it extends normal business cycles into devastating bubbles. While it may temporarily increase the paper wealth of those invested in the assets, it makes real estate/rents unaffordable for the majority and misallocates capital into paper assets with no intrinsic benefits.
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As Twisted recently discussed, there is an inseparable and unquestionable relationship between the rule of law, confidence, and the economy. When the rule of law gives way to govt fraud and corruption, public confidence collapses, along with the economy. The rule of law has already collapsed, although many don’t realize it, because the media keeps wanting you to believe that the problem is out-of-control “thugs”, instead of out of control govt spending and fraud. Like one Baltimore protester said, “it’s unacceptable to burn down your city, but it’s also unacceptable to break a kids neck” (and shoot unarmed citizens, and plant evidence, and lie about forensic data, and confiscate assets with no evidence, and fraudulently ticket people, etc).
In his typically insightful manner, Armstrong reviews how the Rule of Law has collapsed, and asks the pivotal question of our time – “Are we capable as a society of taking that one small step for humankind and learn from history just once?
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The latest Billary controversy detailed in Schweitzers’s book, Clinton Cash, has stirred emotions from many concerned citizens, yet all miss the point that really matters. Passionate points can be made about the “Clinton Blur” of donations to the Clinton Foundation, absorbent fees for speeches by Bill, and coincidental business deals like Uranium One, which has resulted in Russia owning at least a quarter of US uranium sources. Uniformed and/or connected supporters of the Clinton’s argue that this is a right-wing conspiracy, while others insist that it doesn’t matter because Hillary will simply deny any involvement – including deleting her own emails and facilitating the gun running to rebels (ISIS) by Ambassador Stevens in Benghazi, and that politics as usual will continue unabated. The point that most miss is the relationship between the erosion of confidence in govt and the vibrancy of the economy.
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If the US could produce a leader like Nigel Farage for 2016, he or she would win in a landslide. Farage speaks truth to power, and his speeches in front of the EU bureaucrats are legendary, as is the latest that addresses the EU’s desire to fund a standing army to combat Russia – who strangely does not want more NATO encroachment on to its boarders (especially when NATO specifically promised it would not).
Farage is the leader of the UK’s Independence Party (UKIP), which has risen from nothing to 15% of the electorate, relegating the Liberals and Greens to virtual extinction, and more than rocking the boats of the Conservatives and Labor Party’s.
Twisted wrote about Farage last May after UKIP won their first election, being the first 3rd-party to win an election in British history. The trend against govt largess is certainly afoot. A strong 3rd-Party surge is also coming to the US by 2016. If we had a charismatic leader like Farage, with real world experience, Obama may not have won in 2012, but I guess the pain level and intellectual curiosity was still insufficient.
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The latest incident of an unarmed man being gunned down by police in SC is causing the average citizen to question what the hell is going on, and make statements like, “this does not seem normal”. It’s not, and these incidents have happened far more frequently than people are aware (even if cameras can’t capture all the abuses). It’s gotten so bad, I would not be surprised if people start using the police as their personal hit man. After all, all one has to do is call the police and tell them they have a gun. A few examples of recent murders by police can be seen here, here, and here.
If one monitors what’s been going on around the world and starts connecting the dots, the fog will lift. Govt’s from France to Australia are broke and are shaking down their citizens, instead of reforming. When one looks behind the curtain of govt fraud and corruption, it is easy to understand the source of the civil unrest and separatist movements around the world. The common thread is govt fraud, corruption and insolvency. The worldwide trend of police militarizing against their citizens is increasing as govt’s become increasingly broke, which forces desperate acts by govt to confiscate other people’s money, which causes an increasing number of people to become victims and say this is BS.
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